What did the Fed actually commit to?

Headlines spin. We score the statement: how much they locked in, and how sure they sounded — then chart it over time.

This is the language archive. A live take vs the book is Sentinel Check. Ready to paste Fed text? Free account, no card.

Are they locking themselves into action — or just describing the weather? Higher = more committed language.

Do they sound sure, or hedged? Higher = firmer language vs. maybes and conditionals.

Blackhorse Sentinel

Commitment & certainty by meeting

Watermarked · sources in footer

Commitment and certainty by meeting. Up = more locked-in / more sure. Highlighted = this meeting.

Sources

Scores from Blackhorse Sentinel Fed Language Drift (commitment + certainty on FOMC text).
Read the source: Federal Reserve statements and press conferences (primary source links on each meeting page).
Chart shows the last 8 meetings in the archive.
Not a rate forecast — language scores only.

Live take vs the book is Sentinel Check. Here: Inflation.

Meetings

Got a statement or presser snippet? Paste it and get commitment + certainty scores with a sealed receipt.

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