Looking back · not a forecast

Last 4 years: never hit the line. Closest was 2.26%. A live take vs the book is Sentinel Check.

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Sep 24 · 2.26%

3.5%

2.61%

Blackhorse Sentinel

Inflation

Watermarked · sources in footer

Blue = overall. Gray = “core.” Dashed line = 2% — the target they named for this window. It can move. Through June 2026.

Sources

Numbers from official U.S. inflation data (BEA / FRED). Dashed line = the target they named for this window (2%).
Series: BEA PCE via FRED (PCEPI headline, PCEPILFE core). 12-month change computed from index levels.
Dashed line: the target they named for this window (2%) — not a Blackhorse forecast. The number can move.
Window: Jul 22 – Jun 26 (48 months).

Closest misses

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Numbers from official U.S. inflation data (BEA / FRED). Dashed line = the target they named for this window (2%). Sentinel Check · Words