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Fed drift

What they wrote, and the inflation number against the line they named. Looking back — not a rate forecast.

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March 2024 — word scores

March 20, 2024

March 20, 2024 statement: commitment 13.4, certainty 52.1. Presser: 13.4 / 51.7.

Commitment in the statement

Commitment score: 13.4 (the first reading in this archive). Higher = more locked-in language vs. just describing the economy.

Certainty in the statement

Certainty score: 52.1 (the first reading in this archive). Higher = more sure-sounding language; lower = more hedges and maybes.

Blackhorse Sentinel

Commitment & certainty by meeting

Watermarked · sources in footer

Commitment and certainty by meeting. Up = more locked-in / more sure. Highlighted = this meeting.

Sources

  • Scores from Blackhorse Sentinel Fed Language Drift (commitment + certainty on FOMC text).
  • Read the source: Federal Reserve statements and press conferences (primary source links on each meeting page).
  • Chart shows the last 8 meetings in the archive.
  • Not a rate forecast — language scores only.

Proof

Sealed when scored — signed receipt below so the numbers travel with the report.

Receipt ID30b885f0-ac54-46c1-9dbd-68c27af2e283
Hasha6505f411f39225ac9e477fce27ceb7c973def2f399c31195594b04ffa29347a
Signature77a16525b6f575f5…d33b5544a771629f
Sealed at2026-07-29T23:00:58.003Z
Scorer versionsentinel-app/0.1.0

Read the source

FOMC statementPress conference transcript

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