January 2025 — word scores
January 29, 2025
January 29, 2025 statement: commitment 13.4, certainty 52.0. Vs last meeting: commitment held roughly steady, certainty held roughly steady. Presser: 12.9 / 49.5.
Commitment in the statement
Commitment score: 13.4 (little changed from 13.8 at the previous meeting). Higher = more locked-in language vs. just describing the economy.
Certainty in the statement
Certainty score: 52.0 (little changed from 52.0 at the previous meeting). Higher = more sure-sounding language; lower = more hedges and maybes.
Blackhorse Sentinel
Commitment & certainty by meeting
Commitment and certainty by meeting. Up = more locked-in / more sure. Highlighted = this meeting.
Sources
- Scores from Blackhorse Sentinel Fed Language Drift (commitment + certainty on FOMC text).
- Read the source: Federal Reserve statements and press conferences (primary source links on each meeting page).
- Chart shows the last 8 meetings in the archive.
- Not a rate forecast — language scores only.
Proof
Sealed when scored — signed receipt below so the numbers travel with the report.
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