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Fed drift

What they wrote, and the inflation number against the line they named. Looking back — not a rate forecast.

← Words

June 2025 — word scores

June 18, 2025

June 18, 2025 statement: commitment 13.5, certainty 52.3. Vs last meeting: commitment held roughly steady, certainty held roughly steady. Presser: 13.1 / 50.5.

Commitment in the statement

Commitment score: 13.5 (little changed from 13.4 at the previous meeting). Higher = more locked-in language vs. just describing the economy.

Certainty in the statement

Certainty score: 52.3 (little changed from 52.2 at the previous meeting). Higher = more sure-sounding language; lower = more hedges and maybes.

Blackhorse Sentinel

Commitment & certainty by meeting

Watermarked · sources in footer

Commitment and certainty by meeting. Up = more locked-in / more sure. Highlighted = this meeting.

Sources

  • Scores from Blackhorse Sentinel Fed Language Drift (commitment + certainty on FOMC text).
  • Read the source: Federal Reserve statements and press conferences (primary source links on each meeting page).
  • Chart shows the last 8 meetings in the archive.
  • Not a rate forecast — language scores only.

Proof

Sealed when scored — signed receipt below so the numbers travel with the report.

Receipt ID3965615f-3505-4a13-839b-3631eedc8c4c
Hash5e777c9de750609973fc8a443e5647877175701c130e5b1b77d0da3da78423cd
Signature0f3c7950d3ce19c1…9d7f03876a0231db
Sealed at2026-07-29T23:00:55.785Z
Scorer versionsentinel-app/0.1.0

Read the source

FOMC statementPress conference transcript

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