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Fed drift

What they wrote, and the inflation number against the line they named. Looking back — not a rate forecast.

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December 2025 — word scores

December 10, 2025

December 10, 2025 statement: commitment 13.7, certainty 51.9. Vs last meeting: commitment held roughly steady, certainty held roughly steady. Presser: 12.7 / 49.8.

Commitment in the statement

Commitment score: 13.7 (little changed from 13.6 at the previous meeting). Higher = more locked-in language vs. just describing the economy.

Certainty in the statement

Certainty score: 51.9 (little changed from 51.6 at the previous meeting). Higher = more sure-sounding language; lower = more hedges and maybes.

Blackhorse Sentinel

Commitment & certainty by meeting

Watermarked · sources in footer

Commitment and certainty by meeting. Up = more locked-in / more sure. Highlighted = this meeting.

Sources

  • Scores from Blackhorse Sentinel Fed Language Drift (commitment + certainty on FOMC text).
  • Read the source: Federal Reserve statements and press conferences (primary source links on each meeting page).
  • Chart shows the last 8 meetings in the archive.
  • Not a rate forecast — language scores only.

Proof

Sealed when scored — signed receipt below so the numbers travel with the report.

Receipt ID25bb1dd8-3631-4a96-83b9-c0b06baa3525
Hashc9f62dd56a9d15835666ed665a506b96874ff224e0eeb2c8d34c283ff050156c
Signatureb83919b4a5032c96…8ea9e4eb649ddc21
Sealed at2026-07-29T23:00:54.860Z
Scorer versionsentinel-app/0.1.0

Read the source

FOMC statementPress conference transcript

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